The New Mexico Lobos will try to prove they are turning things around when they host the Boise State Broncos on Friday night in a Week 2 college football matchup. The Lobos went 3-9 last season, 1-7 in the Mountain West, and were picked to finish at the bottom of the conference again this year. But a slew of new faces played big roles last week in a 41-0 rout of Maine. Of course, the Black Bears compete in FCS, so New Mexico will face a tougher task this week. And it will take on an angry Boise State team that was picked to vie for the Mountain West title but suffered an ugly 34-17 defeat in their opener. The Broncos also have won 11 of the 12 meetings between the teams, including a 37-0 home victory last November.

Related: Boise State vs New Mexico live stream online, channel, how to

Kickoff in Albuquerque, N.M. is set for 9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Broncos as 17.5-point favorites in the latest Boise State vs. New Mexico odds, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 44. Before locking in New Mexico vs. Boise State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 2 of the 2022 college football season on a 48-37 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Boise State vs. New Mexico and just revealed its picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for New Mexico vs. Boise State:

  • Boise State vs. New Mexico spread: Broncos -17.5
  • Boise State vs. New Mexico over/under: 44 points
  • Boise State vs. New Mexico money line: Broncos -800, Lobos +550
  • BSU: It was 7-5 ATS last season, going 5-1 on the road
  • NM: It was 1-11 ATS in 2021, including 0-6 at home
  • Boise State vs. New Mexico picks: See picks here.

Why Boise State can cover

Boise State is 4-0 against the spread in its past four games following an ATS loss, and it has dominated the Lobos. The Broncos have won five straight against them, going 4-1 ATS and winning four by at least 28 points.The Broncos offense appeared to be coming along in the offseason, so the implosion of senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier was a shock. He threw two interceptions on eight attempts and lost a fumble as Oregon State took a 24-0 halftime lead. Redshirt freshman Taylen Green had some huge moments when he came on in relief.

Green was 19-of-28 for 155 yards and rushed for 102, the bulk of that on an electrifying 74-yard run. He could see a lot more action in place of Bachmeier, who threw for 3,079 yards and 20 TDs last season, with eight interceptions on 401 attempts. George Holani gained just 9 yards on 13 carries last week, but he averaged 4.8 per carry in 2021. Freshman Ashton Jeanty had 16 yards on four runs and has big-play ability. BSU allowed 470 yards Saturday, but the Lobos had the worst offense in all of FBS last season. The Broncos outgained them 427-102 in the 2021 matchup.

Why New Mexico can cover

New Mexico got major contributions from several newcomers as they dominated Maine last weekend. The Lobos piled up 437 yards, including 267 on the ground, while allowing just 118. Kansas transfer Miles Kendrick shined at quarterback, completing 14 of his 17 throws for 170 yards and rushing for another 40. He was one of eight Lobos to rush for at least 20, with junior college transfer Sherod White leading the way with 58 and two touchdowns on 13 carries. Arizona State transfer Geordon Porter was the top receiver with five catches for 54 yards and a touchdown.

Speedy freshman receiver Jah’Mar Sanders also made an impact with two rushes for 25 yards and a TD. Sophomore Luke Wysong was a force all over the field, rushing for 43 yards and catching three balls for 51 while also returning punts. The Lobos defense, led by respected coordinator Rocky Long, is built around a solid linebacking trio of Reco Hannah, Ray Leutele and Syaire Riley. Hannah had 1.5 sacks last week in his first action since a serious knee injury suffered last season. The unit forced two turnovers and had three sacks in last week’s victory.

How to make Boise State vs. New Mexico picks

The model has simulated the New Mexico vs. Boise State matchup 10,000 times, and the results are in. The model is projecting Over on the point total, suggesting one team could benefit from several turnovers. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model’s New Mexico vs. Boise State pick at SportsLine.

By Toffee

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