website analysis Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. UCF - 247SportsTV

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Knights for their Friday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Louisville (0-1, 0-1 ACC) is set to face UCF (1-0, 0-0 American) on Friday, Sept. 9 at 7:30 p.m. EST at the Bounce House in Orlando, Fla. Here’s how the Cardinals stack up against the Knights:

– Rankings:

UCF Louisville
AP/USA TODAY RV/RV NR/NR
SOS 103rd 42nd
SP+ 27th 60th
FPI 30th 59th
Sagarin 42nd 63rd

– Offensive Statistics:

UCF Louisville
Total Offense 5th (605.0) 100th (334.0)
Scoring Offense 12th (56.0) 124th (7.0)
Passing Yards 31st (308.0) 89th (197.0)
Yards Per Completion 18th (15.40) 80th (11.59)
Rushing Yards 7th (297.0) 78th (137.0)
First Downs Gained 27th (29) 114th (15)
3rd Down Con. % 16th (60.0%) 55th (45.5%)
4th Down Con. % 1st (100.0%) 76th (0.0%)
Red Zone Con. % 103rd (71.4%) 127th (0.0%)
Turnovers Lost 29th (1) 104th (3)
Interceptions Thrown 1st (0) 107th (2)
Fumbles Lost 63rd (1) 63rd (1)
Tackles For Loss Allowed 80th (6.00) 94th (7.00)
Sacks Allowed 72nd (2.00) 97th (3.00)
Avg. Time of Possession 80th (28:51) 92nd (27:29)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

– Defensive Statistics:

UCF Louisville
Total Defense 1st (91.0) 105th (449.0)
Scoring Defense 22nd (10.0) 89th (31.0)
Passing Yards Allowed 4th (56.0) 83rd (242.0)
Rushing Yards Allowed 10th (35.0) 108th (207.0)
3rd Down Defensive % 5th (12.5%) 115th (54.5%)
4th Down Defensive % 72nd (50.0%) 1st (0.0%)
First Downs Allowed 8th (9) 81st (23)
Red Zone Defensive % 22nd (50.0%) 79th (100.0%)
Turnovers Gained 66th (1) N/A
Interceptions Caught 33rd (1) N/A
Fumbles Recovered N/A N/A
Sacks Per Game 45th (2.00) 45th (2.00)
TFL Per Game 18th (9.0) 38th (7.0)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

– Special Teams Statistics:

UCF Louisville
Net Punting 122nd (22.33) 75th (38.67)
Avg. Kickoff Return 27th (24.00) 39th (22.20)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. 1st (0.00) 1st (0.00)
Avg. Punt Return 16th (14.33) 122nd (-1.00)
Avg. Punt Return Def. 95th (6.00) 113th (10.50)
Field Goal Attempts 0-1 0-0
PAT 8-8 1-1

Related:

Louisville Cardinals vs. UCF Knights : Preview

Depth Charts: Louisville vs. UCF

Louisville vs. UCF: How to watch NCAA Football online, TV, live

Report: Louisville Reaches Out to ’23 Ohio State Decommit George Washington III

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

– FPI Prediction: Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 21.4 percent chance to win against the Knights. Louisville has an FPI of 1.9 (59th overall), whereas UCF has a rating of 9.0 (30th overall).

– SP+ Prediction:

Screen Shot 2022-09-07 at 4.32.57 PM

Per Bill Connelly’s SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 26.07 percent chance to take down the Knights. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 4.7 (60th overall), whereas UCF has a rating of 13.1 (27th overall).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

  • Preseason: 6.57
  • Post-Week 1: 4.74

– Personal Prediction: UCF 42, Louisville 31.

By Toffee

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