SportsLine’s advanced computer model simulated Monday’s Ravens vs. Chiefs game 10,000 times.
It’s a marquee matchup on Monday Night Football when the Baltimore Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams are 2-0 and led by elite young quarterbacks, with reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson calling the shots for Baltimore and Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes guiding Kansas City. Jackson led the Ravens to the best regular-season record last season at 14-2 before the Ravens were ousted from the playoffs by the Titans. The Chiefs beat the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV to win a league championship in Mahomes’ third season.
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Chiefs vs. Ravens NFL odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is 54.5. Before making any Ravens vs. Chiefs picks of your own, be sure to see the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,300 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It’s off to a strong 5-2 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 3 on an incredible 101-67 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has simulated Ravens vs. Chiefs 10,000 times. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Now, here are the NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Ravens:
- Chiefs vs. Ravens spread: Baltimore -3.5
- Chiefs vs. Ravens over-under: 54.5
- Chiefs vs. Ravens money line: Baltimore -170, Kansas City +150
- BAL: Set an NFL record with 3,296 rushing yards last season.
- KC: TE Travis Kelce has at least six receptions in 10 of the past 12 games.
Why the Ravens can cover
Baltimore is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight Monday night games. The Ravens have allowed just 22 points, and linebacker Patrick Queen, the team’s first-round pick, has been a strong addition in the middle. He has a team-high 17 tackles and a sack, while end Calais Campbell, acquired in a trade with the Jaguars, also has a sack and solidifies the front.
The Ravens are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. They are fourth in the league in rushing at 170.5 yards, with Jackson leading the team at 99. Gus Edwards, Mark Ingram and rookie J.K. Dobbins also get plenty of carries. Jackson has five TD passes, and his primary targets are wideout Marquise Brown (143 yards) and tight end Mark Andrews (87 yards, two TDs).
Why the Chiefs can cover
Kansas City is 4-0-1 against the spread in its past five Monday Night Football games, and Mahomes relishes the spotlight. The 25-year-old already has league and Super Bowl MVP awards and has gone 26-7 in 33 games played. He threw for 302 yards in the win against L.A. after rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire stole the show with 138 yards in the opener. Mahomes has five touchdown passes and no interceptions and has completed 75 percent of his attempts.
The Chiefs are 9-1-1 against the spread in their last 11 games as a road underdog, while receiver Tyreek Hill and Mahomes have a special connection. The two hooked up on a spectacular 54-yard touchdown Sunday as Mahomes launched the pass more than 50 yards through the air on the run. Hill leads the team with 145 receiving yards, while tight end Travis Kelce has a team-high 15 catches for 140. The Chiefs’ defense has six sacks this season, led by Chris Jones with 1.5.
How to make Chiefs vs. Ravens picks
The model is leaning Under, saying Jackson will have a subpar game for Baltimore, while the Chiefs will struggle to run the ball. It also has generated an against the spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations.